Conference Championship Picks
We are just in shambles right now. 0-5 in the divisional round, try to turn our focus to the hardwood and we have an 11.5 point home fav lose outright by 9. Sorry Gators fans, the WeeklyWagers curse is an unstoppable force. Now today, we both were in lockstep with our picks and feel confident in them, so if this week doesn’t get us going then we might just not know ball.
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BetSaracen Bet of the Week:
BlakeBets- Broncos +3.5 (-110)
This number got as high as 5.5 earlier in the week but has been bet down to its lowest number at 3.5. Denver is taking sharp money, despite the news that Bo Nix is out for the season due to an ankle injury. Jarrett Stidham will start in the biggest game of his life by a wide margin. While this is cause for concern, I really think the major drop off between the two players is the running ability of Nix. Stidham is a statue and New England will be aggressive in trying to get pressure to make him uncomfortable. However, Sean Payton has coached 17 games with a backup QB in his career. Excluding 3rd/4th stringers and preseason games, he's gone 13-4 straight up in those games. As far as the Patriots go, I’ve given my pitch multiple times. Worst SOS in the league. Their playoff run has been no different, getting the Chargers without an oline, Texans without Nico Collins + Stroud disasterclass, and now Broncos without Nix. I really do like Denver outright here and then expect them to get blown out in the Super Bowl. Go Broncos!
WeeklyWagers- Rams +2.5 (-110)
Many look at this game as the de facto Super Bowl and for good reason. The Rams boast the leagues top offense by a wide margin per DVOA, and the Seahawks defense can say the same. You have probably seen the graphic at this point, but in the two prior matchups, these teams split their games, seperated by 1 point and 1 yard. As close as you can get and now we get the rubber match. There are some reasons to buy into this Seahawks spot, as they get more rest, home field advantage, and the Rams will be playing their 3rd straight road game. The Seahawks also dismantled the Niners last week so they didn’t have to expend to much energy, while the Rams are coming off an OT game vs. the Bears.
However, in playoff history, teams that win by 20+, are just 1-5 ATS the following week. Very small sample size, but a note that I am buying into. Also, McVay is 3-0 when facing a division opponent in the playoffs.
The Rams have the flexibility needed to beat this Seahawks defense, as they have a stud QB, great run game, solid OL, TE depth and star WR’s. They can go 13 personnel with their tight ends or 11 personnel with Puka and Adams. McVay and Stafford have been great against Mike MacDonald’s defenses over the years and while I don’t think they light up the scoreboard, I think they will have some nice wrinkles and put some drives together.
Seattle’s offense has sputtered as of late compared to their first half of the season showing. Losing Zach Charbonnet is a killer for this run game, because while Ken Walker is one of the best at explosive plays, he struggles on a down-to-down basis and could get this Seattle offense in some 2nd/3rd and longs. That is not where Darnold and co want to live tonight.
Ultimately, I trust Stafford more than Darnold and think they have outplayed Seattle in both games so far. So I am taking the points with the superior QB and the HC that has got it done before.
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