Final Four Picks
What a tournament it has been. While we have not gotten a ton of upsets outside of High Point, Iowa, and Texas… it has in turn given us some great games in the later rounds. Duke with yet another historic collapse, TKR’s Buzzer Beater, Tyler Tanner’s near Buzzer Beater ( would have gone in if it wasn’t for InflateGate). Just some elite basketball for us degenerates to enjoy. And this weekend should provide plenty of fireworks in its own right. Both games as of writing this are 1.5 point spreads which hasn’t happened in forever, and we also get probably one of the highest anticipated matchups in recent memory between Michigan and Arizona. Before we get into the picks, we want to shoutout our sponsors, BetSaracen. They are offering 75% live profit boosts promos on both games today!!
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WeeklyWagers- UCONN +2 (-110)
This game is one I have honestly gone back and forth on many times, and will probably change my mind another 10 times before tipoff. One reason is I just have come to the realization that Dan Hurley is someone I do not want to be on the opposing side of. The man never loses in the NCAAT and he always covers. It really is incredible.
Both teams are elite in the half-court offense and neither one really looks to push in transition, but they go about their HC offense in two-different ways. UCONN puts teams in a ton of off-ball screening action and pulls your bigs out from under the rim. Illinois utilizes more ball-screen coverage and relies more on creation from their playmakers, but they can do that because they have multiple playmakers all with size and skill to pass over any traps or hedges. Both of these defenses will struggle matching up well, as Illinois plays a very passive defense focused on protecting the rim and limiting fouls, but they do not force turnovers and give up a lot of 3’s. They also do not see this type of offense very much in the Big 10, so it will be interesting to see if the bigs can get out to the 3 point line.
UCONN deploys a hard-hedge ball-screen coverage, which Illinois torches again because of their size to pass through a trap, and they have shooters everywhere they can spray it out to. So I think the defenses struggle in this one.
Illinois should control the glass as they are one of the better rebounding teams in the entire country, evidenced by their manhandling of Houston in the S16. Reed has to stay out of foul trouble for UCONN if they want a chance because UCONN does not have the depth at the post spot like they typically do.
Honestly, even as I type this I find myself wanting to sway back to Illinois, but I just cannot shake two things. 1. Dan Hurley 2. Illinois letting UCONN run their half-court offense unabated . I think that will be the difference in the game as nobody is better in the HC than the Huskies.
BlakeBets- Michigan -1.5 (-110)
In what is being coined as the de facto National Championship game, we see two of the most elite teams in CBB history according to Kenpom face off. Both teams overwhelm you with size and look to get out in transition. Michigan hunts 3PT shots, while Arizona just bullies you in the paint.
Michigan is equipped better than anybody to slow down Arizona in the paint as they are an elite rim protection defense headlined by Adey Mara, and they are also one of the best in the nation in transition defense. With Arizona not having a stretch big, Michigan will really be able to load up on the paint knowing they don’t have to worry about any shooting from the bigs, and even the guards while plenty capable, don’t shoot a ton of 3’s. One of the problems for the Wolverines is despite their size, they actually aren’t all that great on the DREB side of things, which could prove fatal against Arizona who is an elite OREB team. Another problem is the only way to score in the paint on Michigan is to go through them since you can’t go over, and Arizona is one of the few teams who can actually go through this defense.
On the other side, Michigan looks for transition and 3’s as they play more of the math game with their shot selection. Arizona has been amongst the best in 3PT defense because of their length and aggressive closeouts, but Michigan has been red-hot as of late and has a bit more flexibility with their bigs being able to hit 3’s.
Similarly to the Illinois/UCONN game, you can make a incredibly strong argument for either team, but there are two things that stick out to me. 1. Michigan not having to worry about a stretch big threat really allows them to focus on the paint where they are already great. 2. I see Michigan having more outs due to their supposed 3PT advantage. If they shoot it well like they have been, it is going to force Arizona into a game they would rather not play which is taking more shots beyond the arc.
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