NFL Picks Week 13
Needless to say… we did not end the CFB regular season with a bang. 1-4 day with bad beats all around. ULM down 7 with 40 seconds left, ULL runs a 40 yard TD instead of kneeling out the clock. Vandy starts the game up 14-0 and still doesn’t cover, just brutal. Hitting our UTSA bet gave us major Game 7 Chris Paul vibes.
Yesterday pushed us to 57-50-3 on the year and up 5.4 units on the year. We are hoping that the trend continues of us having one good day and one bad day, meaning today would be our first good NFL day in seemingly forever. A man can dream, lets get into the picks.
WeeklyWagers- Tennessee +6 (-110)
Tennnesee faces the Commanders today in Landover and we like them to keep it close. Washington took the league by storm early in the year, but have cooled off considerably as of late. It seems as if the markets are still giving them alot of respect, but we are not buying it. Defenses are starting to adjust to this Commander offense, if they stop the run and take away Terry Mclaurin, there isn’t much to this offense. Add in that Austin Ekeler is on IR, and Brian Robinson has been banged up and stopping this run game becomes even easier. Tennessee is 5th in the league in Early Down Success Rate, so they should be able to force Daniels and Co into a lot of 3rd and longs.
Betting on Will Levis has burned us many a times, but he has actually been playing better as of late, all of which were against tougher defenses than he will face today. He should be able to move the ball against this defense and put up some points. The Commanders are also just reeling as they still have not had their bye so it just feels like a team limping to the finish line right now, but still getting respect in the market from their early-season surge. Give us the Titans to keep it closer.
WeeklyWagers- BAL/PHI 1H U 24.5 (-110)
In the game of the day, we are taking an ugly start to the game for both teams. It is a bit shocking given the star talent both teams have on offense, but these two teams are some of the most profitable teams in the 1H Under market. Both teams are going to want to establish the run early on, but both defenses are top 10 in DVOA against the run. Both defenses also rank in the top 10 in 1H PPG allowed. In a game where all anybody can talk about is the offense, give us these defenses to play well early and make it ugly.
BlakeBets- Ravens-3 (-110)
We are fading the trendy dog of the week in the Eagles. The public loves Philly to continue their win streak on the road against one of the best teams in the league and we are fading that narrative. While Hurts is a very talented quarterback, I don’t think he will be able to take advantage of the Ravens weaknesses in the secondary the same way someone Burrow could. The Eagles want to establish the run with Barkley but Baltimore ranks second in the league at stopping the run! Ravens keep that explosive running game at bay and take care of business at home
System: Fading teams on 5+ winning streaks with 80%+ win percentages after Week 11 are 127-87-5 hitting 59.35% for a 12.99% ROI
BlakeBets- Falcons ML (+100)
We are fading the Chargers once again, this time in Atlanta. Falcons are coming off a bye with extra time to prepare for the Chargers, who are traveling cross-country from LA. Add the fact that Atlanta got embarrassed in their last game before the bye week against Denver. Teams typically bounce back after blow out loses of 30+ points, as we will see with the system attached to this play. Chargers defense has been great against bad offenses but exposed against capable ones. Falcons will establish the run at home and get back on track this week!
System: Teams coming off a 30+ point loss after week 5 are 164-120-11 hitting 57.75% for a 9.86% ROI
4 plays, 4 hopeful winners as we look to right the ship after an awful day yesterday. Follow below to see all of our plays
https://www.blakebets.com/
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https://prizepicks.onelink.me/FjtC/qyny4no8