NFL/CBB Picks

One of my biggest pet peeves in sports is when teams go into chew-the-clock mode too early. As an Arkansas Razorback basketball fan, it was my biggest problem with Coach Muss. We’d be up 12 with 10 minutes left, momentum on our side and then go into stall ball. Sure enough, opponents would gain momentum and creep back into it.

After doing some soul-searching, we realized we have fallen victim to the very thing we hate. We were throwing out 5 play newsletters, attacking the board relentlessly, and in return got up to 12 units. Then, we start getting conservative, only throw 2 or 3 plays out, just trying to protect our profit. And what do you know, the board gets momentum and makes it a ballgame. No more we say, no more! Throwing a full-court press at the board today and getting aggressive again. Going to make Vegas suffer through 40 Minutes of Hell if they want to come out on top today.

WeeklyWagers- Steelers +2.5 (-110)

This line opening at 1.5 immediately caught our attention. The Steelers are coming off 3 straight blowout losses and everybody is writing them off. Meanwhile, the Bengals are winners of 4 straight and are the talk of the town. Everybody is talking about how dangerous they could be in the playoffs, does Burrow deserve MVP consideration, Chase going for the triple crown… so why did this open at 1.5? Vegas knows something here.

Cincy’s wins came against DTR, Mason Rudolph, Cooper Rush, and an OT win vs. Bo Nix. Not exactly a murderers row there. The Defense is still struggling and will be coming off of an OT game, while PIT gets 10 days of rest. Both teams will be motivated as PIT will either be playing for the division (unlikely) or be playing to get the 5 seed and a trip to BAL. That plus a Tomlin rah-rah spot, AND a Tomlin Home Underdog… just too hard to pass up.

WeeklyWagers- Jerry Jeudy Over 56.5 Recieving Yards (-110)

Pro-Bowler Jerry Jeudy… who would have thought. Jeudy has been the lone brightspot on this offense the past couple of weeks and Stefanski is just force-feeding him the ball. In a game where they are 20 point underdogs they will be airing it out with Bailey Zappe, who cannot be worse than DTR was. Perfect gamescript vs a defense that gives up alot of passing yards. The Ravens also could bench some starters late in this game and we think Jeudy wants to end his strong season on a good note since its been a rought start to his career.

WeeklyWagers- Lamar Jackson Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

This is a scary bet to place as Lamar can beat this on one scamper alone, and is in the thick of a MVP race, but we look at last week where he only attempted 4 rushes and it seems that the Ravens are encouraging him to not run too much. As stated previously, 20 point favorites today against the Browns, and we just do not see them putting Lamar in harms way and asking him to run it 7-8 times today. It is also still a divisional opponent who sees him more than most teams so they are somewhat prepared for his speed. Its ugly, but give us the under here.

BlakeBets- Alabama -13 (-110)

Conference play is upon us and we have some great matchups across College Basketball today, specifically in the SEC with 3 Top 25 Matchups. Oklahoma comes into this game undefeated and currently ranked #12 in the nation. However, I think they get exposed on the road today against a very talented Alabama squad led by Mark Sears (18 PPG, 4 Assists). Oklahoma has played a bad schedule, with a strength of schedule ranking of 346th in nation according to Kenpom. They have 2 ranked wins (Arizona & Michigan), both of which are now unranked. Oklahoma struggles are on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 76th in the country in Defensive Rating according to Kenpom. I think Alabama uses home court advantage and their #4 ranked offense to expose Oklahoma and their overrated undefeated record. Sooners fall for the first time this season in a blowout. Roll Tide!

System: In the last 3 years, when two ranked teams face off, the home team is 123-88-4 ATS hitting at 58%

BlakeBets- Missouri +18 (-110)

Staying in the SEC, we are also taking Mizzou in the matchup of the tigers. Missouri has a big win over then #1 Kansas by 9 back in early December. Add to that, their two losses are aging well, with both losses (Season opener vs. Memphis, Illinois) being currently ranked! Now on the other side, Auburn is a very talented team, after all they are my preseason pick to win the National Championship. However, they have been outperforming in every possible category on their way to a 9-3-1 record ATS. I think we see some regression there at the start of conference play. Missouri is 35th in offensive rating and they should be able to score enough points to stay within a huge number. I think this Missouri team is a little bit better than consensus rankings say and they prove it today in a tough road environment.